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DGAZF A Cornered Market?

By Erik Zimerman On August 12, 2020 · Add Comment · In Avvisi, The Whiskey Room

Today was interesting indeed. The market is an interesting place for sure, and on its best days not for the faint of heart. Yet today, a few of us witnessed and/or weathered a real storm. Unfortunately, few if any of us, saw any gains from the cataclysmic movement of DGAZF today, because few if any folks had any shares. The gain was among a small cabal that had the market cornered. Perhaps not altogether legally either. In short, DGAZF had a NAV, or more accurately an indicative value of about $110-$130 dollars per share today, and traded at over $25,000 a share. Meaning it easily was trading at 200 times its value. DGAZF, completely disconnecting from its intrinsic value. Courtesy of @EricBalchunas There is a strong message in this piece for Credit Suisse, who ultimately promised investors in their ETN, whether holders of long or short positions, that, that DGAZF will closely track the Index it ought to track. DGAZF (VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN) originally DGAZ before recently delisting, is an ETN which gains investors exposure in Natural Gas, more accurately 3 times its inverse (specifically 3x the Inverse of the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER). Like [...]

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Backtesting a Successful Trading Algorithm

By Erik Zimerman On February 13, 2018 · 4 Comments · In The Jackal's Den, The Whiskey Room

Being one who understands something of economics, the stock market, the arts of war, high cuisine, technology and can dance a pretty mean salsa, it stood to reason that of all people, your humble Lighthouse Keeper should be able to write a decent trading bot. We have all heard how an ever increasing amount of the day-to-day market activity is dominated by Quants and their bots. With this algorithmic trading, computer programs basically buy and sell securities with lightning speeds, making decisions based on any number of measurable criteria far more quickly than any human could. Still, the trick is to know what “measurable criteria” should tell a bot to buy, hold or sell what security and how much of it. Physicists, nuclear neurosurgeon rocket scientists and PhDs of unknown types reportedly dominate this Quant world. Never one to be stymied nor overly impressed with titular authorities¹ and academic regalia, I dusted off my one of my old trading strategies I had developed and delved into the Quant world. Apparently, python was a good language to do this with, and though I get by well enough with JavaScript, VBscript, and even php, had never even seen Python. All the available [...]

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Amarin Manipulation and Opportunity

By Erik Zimerman On June 25, 2013 · Add Comment · In Avvisi, The Whiskey Room

Amarin Corporation (AMRN), a pharmaceutical company that is currently marketing the recently approved Vascepa, is being offered at an almost outlandishly low share price. As the article is being written, Amarin (AMRN) is down around the 5.30’s, far below its previous 52-week low (before FDA approval). It is clear that short of some lurking, largely unknown phenomenon, Amarin has fallen prey to manipulation. Not implying any illegality, due to its infancy, and relatively small float, bear raids have been repeatedly successful in driving down the stock price, especially along with media “pieces” from the same circle of authors that continuously seem to push a curiously negative agenda surrounding the company and fall quite short of accurate or insightful. Currently, with a lull in big headlines and possible catalysts, the bear interest has succeeded in greatly depreciating the stock price, as the avalanche took with it retail investors that have despaired, given up, or were simply forced to sell due to margin calls as the stock price plummeted. The point of true success for any bear raid, is when the price fall gathers momentum on continues on by itself; this is when true profit is possible, as the bear raiders can [...]

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Lighthouse Stock Tip Update – Amarin Script Sales

By Erik Zimerman On March 7, 2013 · 7 Comments · In The Whiskey Room

A few months back, one of my updates suggested CEL and AMRN as short term/medium term investments. In the case of CEL, the market had overreacted to new competition in the Israeli market and investors with our suggested timing were repaid with an approximate 69% return. In Amarin’s case (Amarin Corporation Plc, NASDAQ: AMRN), though the stock continued to rise after our endorsement, and providing a 30% return shorty thereafter, I suggested holding on to this position still further. Since Amarin’s announcement to “Go it Alone” in launching their Marine indication for Vascepa, and continuous FDA delays in reaching a regulatory exclusivity decision (NCE), Amarin has continued to lose value; now well below our suggested entry point. Some decrease, based on the the uncertainty of smaller companies launching new drugs successively and lack of acquisition or marketing partner (did they know something we did not? or was the CEO simply holding for too high a bid?) was quite logical. In fact, merger speculation had largely helped fuel Amarin’s rapid increase in share price. Though management so far seems to have been more than competent in achieving their goals and milestones they did fail miserably during this period of rapid share value loss in communicating with their investors. This gave fuel [...]

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Stock Tip Update – Cellcom

By Erik Zimerman On September 28, 2012 · Add Comment · In The Whiskey Room

Back in the last day of July, the Lighthouse made two stock suggestions to our readership who may have some spare cash to invest and is happy to see bigger than average returns. The first suggestion was CEL (Cellcom Israel LTD), which we correctly predicted had dropped over-zealously due to marker deregulation and competition. The opening price on the day of the article post was 5.54 US dollars per share. The stock price immediately began its steady climb. The very next day saw a 6% profit for those interested in fast profits and very short term swing trading. Within a couple of weeks it had reached 7.45, and well within the time horizon of the vast majority of investors, by September 24, less than two months after the post, CEL had reached 9.33 – a 69% profit return in less than two months! I do not make stock recommendations often, as I tend to stick to loftier discussions, but when I do… they are good. Below is a chart from Google Finance showing CEL’s climb since my endorsement. The second suggestion was AMRN. AMRN has remained volatile since the post because the move has not ran its course, and I suggest [...]

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The Lighthouse Stock Tips – Amarin and Cellcom

By Erik Zimerman On July 31, 2012 · 4 Comments · In Avvisi, The Whiskey Room

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DGAZF A Cornered Market?

Backtesting a Successful Trading Algorithm

Amarin Manipulation and Opportunity

Lighthouse Stock Tip Update – Amarin Script Sales

Stock Tip Update – Cellcom

The Lighthouse Stock Tips – Amarin and Cellcom

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