The Lighthouse | 2020 November

From the monthly archives: "November 2020"

Calling States Before Others

By Erik Zimerman On November 4, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Way before others, including Fox News, just like in 2016. For Trump MO OK IN KY WV TN MS AL ND SD WY UT KS MO TX Florida 8:00 PM EST time Nov 4 2020 Georgia 8:20 PM EST Nov 4 2020 North Carolina 8:42 PM EST Nov 4 2020 Virginia 9:39 EST PM Nov 4 2020 – Call Pending Ohio 10:00 EST PM Nov 4 2020 Arizona 10:50 EST PM Nov 4 2020 Iowa 11:25 EST PM Nov 4 2020 Wisconsin 1:36 AM EST Nov 4 2020 Pennsylvania 1:40 EST PM Nov 4 2020 – Pending call. The 3 to 1 Democrat to GOP early voter ballot request, is not enough overcome the large lead, even if they had not been counted at all. In all likelihood, some were counted. It’s going to be close. 2:00 AM EST If I was a betting man, I’d say 75% Trump has the race.. but we call things based on a certain level of certainty, not a bet. so we can’t do it yet. The Situation. It is not over yet. Stay keen, verify your votes online. Report any issues to the state and the party you intended to vote for (in [...]

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A Polling Question

By Erik Zimerman On November 4, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Much has been written and discussed about polling. It seems evident that there is a “house effect” and much of the mainstream polling, for various reasons, skews a few points to the left (towards Biden in this case). It remains to be seen if this skew is enough, and in the right states to change the outcome. Trafalgar Group, which was most accurate in 2016 by far, and arguably likewise in 2018 races, has Trump up in critical battleground states. One problem may be the large amount of votes that were cast before the race tightened due to the massive numbers of early votes, encouraged by the Democratic party as part of their coronavirus obsession. without getting into too much detail, Trafalgar’s Calhoun, try to compensane for the shy Trump voter. It is pretty evident that the environment which may have caused a shy Trump voter in 2016 is only amplified in 2020. The entire situation is amplified. However, it is being missed that the left doubled down on these tactics rather than reign them in. There are segments of the population that can go from not admitting to a pollster that they will vote for Trump, to actually not [...]

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The Real Reason the Left doesn’t Care about Biden Corruption Revelations

By Erik Zimerman On November 3, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

The truth is very simple, though not often heard. It is not that they think the allegations are made up, or are Russian disinformation. They have as little evidence of the Russian disinformation charge, as they did that Trump was somehow a Russian agent. Namely none. If they did, the mainstream media and left would be pushing that story instead of hiding from it. They level the charge only casually as they try to nonchalantly switch subjects. In fact, ironically levelling this charge blatantly is what led to Tony Bobulinsky, Hunter Biden’s partner, to come out on record, and provide one of the most damning pieces of evidence against Hunter and Joe Biden. A patriotic, yet non-partisan American veteran and businessman was insulted at being called a traitor when he is anything but. For you to watch, very compelling, AFTER you finish the article of course. The evidence already available on the public record is overwhelming, the allegations are true, and they point to influence peddling at best, to treason at worse. They are certainly at the very least worthy of further investigation. Some, including Rudy Giuliani, the legendary prosecutor and 9-11 era very successful Mayor of New York City [...]

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Remember the Inspiring Donald Trump Endorsements

By Erik Zimerman On November 3, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

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Why Jo Jorgensen should be Graceful, and Perhaps Critical

By Erik Zimerman On November 2, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

With the election down to a couple of states that seem to be stressfully in play, Pennsylvania and Michigan chief among them, we see the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen scoring anywhere between 1 to 2 percent in the Pennsylvania polls, and a bit higher on average in Michigan. She also is polling significantly in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio and other states. In several states, including some of the aforementioned, she was polling higher than the Trump-Biden spread. Her numbers have shrunk in recent polling since many of her supporters already know what I posit in this article, but this piece is for Mrs. Jorgensen and for those that still don’t. Admittedly I am far from an expert on Jorgensen. Her positions alone command admiration and respect, and from a brief review, I am humbly in agreement with the vast majority of them. I wish her and her supporters much health and success. However, the following must be stated. Polling these numbers at this stage of the race is crazy! Put plainly, the numbers are sufficient to potentially cost Donald Trump and the GOP the Presidential race in certain battleground states (and thus nationally), and they are infinitely too small [...]

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Early Voting Data a Good Sign for Trump and the GOP

By Erik Zimerman On November 1, 2020 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi

Of course, it must be said that early voting data can be a very poor predictor of election results. Firstly, the the breakdown is by voter party registration (in states where there is party registration and this data is available), and not necessarily by whom the voter actually voted for. It is specifically weak in this regard when it comes to Independents or non affiliated voters (who did they vote for? That remains the question). Secondly, early voting comes in at various times and is counted at various times so comparing results from one election to another is difficult. However, those caveats aside, it is still something that we can look at for some general trends. The mainstream polls are predicting a very large Biden victory, and we are also seeing very large early voting ballot numbers compared to previous years. This is in large part due to the coronavirus pandemic fears, that have many voters weary of going to the voting booth. Democrats have been pushing for more mail-in ballots than Republicans who typically prefer to “see” their ballot going in. All of these factors put together, plus others, may have many expecting large Democratic voter ballot leads in [...]

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Calling States Before Others

A Polling Question

The Real Reason the Left doesn’t Care about Biden Corruption Revelations

Remember the Inspiring Donald Trump Endorsements

Why Jo Jorgensen should be Graceful, and Perhaps Critical

Early Voting Data a Good Sign for Trump and the GOP

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