Much has been written and discussed about polling. It seems evident that there is a “house effect” and much of the mainstream polling, for various reasons, skews a few points to the left (towards Biden in this case). It remains to be seen if this skew is enough, and in the right states to change the outcome.
Trafalgar Group, which was most accurate in 2016 by far, and arguably likewise in 2018 races, has Trump up in critical battleground states. One problem may be the large amount of votes that were cast before the race tightened due to the massive numbers of early votes, encouraged by the Democratic party as part of their coronavirus obsession.
without getting into too much detail, Trafalgar’s Calhoun, try to compensane for the shy Trump voter.
It is pretty evident that the environment which may have caused a shy Trump voter in 2016 is only amplified in 2020. The entire situation is amplified. However, it is being missed that the left doubled down on these tactics rather than reign them in. There are segments of the population that can go from not admitting to a pollster that they will vote for Trump, to actually not coting vor Trump.
Terror terrorizes and it is often met by appeasement. Recent history is full of examples, be it Spain switching governments at the behest of Madrid train bombers or peace wishing Israelis citizens voting to give away their country to the enemy.
Many people, may not have the fight in them. They may think that all goes back to normal if you just do what the chaos threatening people say. Many voters, perhaps many women, will subconsciously blame this fear on the “divisiveness” of Trump. Not realizing that it takes two to tango, and that shops across the country are being boarded up in case of a Trump victory and not in case of a Biden victory (Conservatives don’t burn down their country when their candidate doesn’t win an election). This exchange at fox is a potential show of this (though it reeks of fake fake flag.. fake “2106 voters”, especially the one pretty angry lady).
This would be quite unfortunate of course, but what is interesting is that it does not matter if Trafalgar’s explanation of Why polls are off is right or wrong. All sorts of factors can be at play, but what is interesting is that Trafalgar has so far been pretty accurate.
One of the things that is quite interesting is that Trafalgar asks people they poll not only who they would vote for but also who they think their neighbor would vote for.
Another poll, who picked up the idea reported the statistics. The answers are very intriguing.
Trump has huge leads when people are asked who they think their neighbors will vote for. Also large leads when asked who will win.
Trafalgar assumes that this means that people are more likely to say that their neighbor will vote for Trump than they are, when they in fact favor Trump. However,
Trafalgar assumes that this means that people are more likely to say that their neighbor will vote for Trump than they are, when they in fact favor Trump. However, this could also go the other way. One cam imagine secret Biden voters in Trump country.
Or in fact, it can just be due to the enthusiasm gap. The Trump supporters enthusiasm compared to that of Biden’s magnifies the appearance of support for Trump. But regardless of how enthusiastic, you only get one vote.