The Lighthouse

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The Danger of “Peace”

By Erik Zimerman On November 19, 2012 · 1 Comment · In Joab's Men

At outset of Operation Pillar of Defense, here at the Lighthouse we voiced our support for the IDF’s operation and highlighted the dangers and opportunities present in the new realities of the region, brought on by a weak and misguided Western World. Chief among these changes was that a group almost indistinguishable from Hamas (they have a rather intertwined history), is actually in control of Egypt. The first article’s headline, –Gilad Shalit and many more Avenged today – Egypt is Not the Same was repeated nearly verbatim a few days later by Egypt’s new Islamist President Mohammed Morsi: Cairo would not leave Gaza alone as I tell them on behalf of the Egyptian people that Egypt today is different from Egypt yesterday and Arabs today are different from the Arabs yesterday. He went on to say that: if I see that the homeland is in danger, I won’t hesitate. Earlier on Friday he was quoted as: Gaza will not remain alone as it was…the aggressors know they will pay a heavy price is they continue their aggression. These words were accompanied by the Egyptian Ambassador’s recall to Cairo, and visit of solidarity to Gaza by the Egyptian PM. As we warned at the outset, Egypt was different, yet thankfully [...]

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Islamist Morsi Takes down the Egyptian Army?

By Erik Zimerman On August 13, 2012 · 1 Comment · In Avvisi, Joab's Men

In a surprising move, and what seems to be a preemptive coup, Egypt’s new Islamist President (member of the jihadist Muslim Brotherhood) Muhammed Morsi has declared Field Marshal Tantawi and General Sami Hafez Anan, who led Egypt’s ruling military council (SCAF), “retired” along with other top Generals. Perhaps more importantly, he has cancelled the latest constitutional amendment (which gave the Army broader powers than the President), and replaced it with a new amendment, which actually grants the new President greater autocratic powers than those that Mubarak had previously held. So much for the “freedom protesters”. Interestingly, this comes in the wake of an Islamic attack in the Sinai-Gaza area which left 16 Egyptian security personnel dead and more wounded. As it stands, it APPEARS that this move was part of an agreement reached between Morsi and the leading Generals. That is far from certain, and it is mostly derived from the fact that both Generals were praised, thanked for their “patriotic” cooperation, given medals of honor, and declared henceforth Presidential advisers, a move which seems to point to immunity from prosecution and a peaceful retirement. Here the Lighthouse reports further updates on this showdown more recently reported on here. In that piece, the general picture of the showdown [...]

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Just Another Example of the Realities of the Muslim World that the West refuses to Face

By Erik Zimerman On July 27, 2012 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Joab's Men

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Egypt Showdown – “Arab Spring” Update

By Erik Zimerman On June 24, 2012 · 1 Comment · In Avvisi, Joab's Men

We are told that in mere moments, we will hear the announcements of the heavily contested elections in Egypt. The two leading candidates are Ahmed Shafiq (Mubarak’s last Prime Minister) the Muslim Brotherhood’s er Mohammed Morsi. Neither are really the “cream of the crop” in terms of their respective camps, but the election process turned out this way as each side tried to not scare the other too much. Morsi was relatively unknown among the Islamists, and this is precisely why he was chosen as a candidate for the previously banned Muslim Brotherhood (mother of Egyptian Jihad and Hamas). Other candidates it was feared, would inspire too much fear by the middle class and more secular sections of Egyptian society. Likewise, Omar Suleiman, a master diplomat and long time feared intelligence chief under Mubarak who not only survived the revolution, avoided prosecution but also became very popular as a critic of the Muslim Brotherhood post Mubarak, had earlier announced his candidacy. Suleiman was quickly barred from running. He was considered too close politically to Hosni Mubarak, as his Vice President and spy chief. The faces of the rabble at Tahir Square did not represent the broad spectrum of society in Egypt, as I [...]

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Egypt Coup?

By Erik Zimerman On February 10, 2011 · 2 Comments · In Avvisi, Joab's Men

There… it looks like it finally happened… though the army, Suleiman and the regime seemd to have remained behind Mubarak inspite huge internal and external pressure. The Egyptian rabble, though it seemed to be withering away, it was a mistake to release the Google engineer which re-energized the protests. The army seems to have failed to stop to let water, food and people back into the square. Haad they, not people slowly would leave and not come back, but they were able to refresh at home and come back. Finally, it seems the country wide strikes, (which are much more political than the so called facebook youth in the square) that paralyzed the rest of the economy are too much. The army now fears Friday’s violence in state government, and though Suleiman warned of a coup the last few days if protesters did not stop, it seems it is here. Again, due to this warning, and the fact there has not been any visible signs of military activity against Mubarak, it is still possible that they are acting together, the army and the regime. Certainly the concept of a military coup will split the opposition, with the very [...]

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Egypt Opportunity

By Erik Zimerman On January 31, 2011 · 2 Comments · In Joab's Men

The changing situation: Mubarak is in an increasingly bad shape. He is meeting with his generals, who I think realize they really hold the power, and as long as they don’t switch sides, the rabble can’t do anything and will peter out. Of course there are limits to this, as any man regardless of how powerful, quickly is reduced to just that, a single man, if his aura of power vanishes. Everyone in leadership is always aware of this, including the Generals. They too worry about losing control of their men. Their interest is that Mubarak not look like he ran with the tail between his legs (the generals do not like to give so much power to the rabble who can then do the same thing with the next leader), but who knows how much they want him to remain. You have the extremely powerful Intelligence chief Sulleiman, who apparently Mubarak is increasingly relying on, and is much more popular with the army than Mubarak’s son, and he may be a successor. However, I doubt the rabble would be to happy with him. The one asset Mubarak has in this protest is that the most [...]

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Update – Assad agreeing with Erik?

By Erik Zimerman On January 31, 2011 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Joab's Men

Well, events seem to be proving my analysis correct faster than expected. First, we have Assad explaining to the Wall Street Journal in a rare interview why Syria is immune from these Tunisia, Egypt style protests. Assad Rare Wall Street Journal Interview He echoed my reasons posted in the last note: Assad is more popular there then Mubarak, Islamist movement is much less pronounced and the economic situation there is not as bad. Assad has also shown to the Arab Street that he has been able to thus far, avoid war and avoid surrender to Israel and the west, becoming a bit of mini regional superpower along with Iran and the rest of the Axis of Evil. This gives street credibility. Assad said, according to the AP article reporting on the interview ( I did not have the actual text from the WSJ). But he said Syria, which has gradually shed its socialist past in favor of the free market in recent years, was insulated from the upheaval because he understood his people’s needs and has united them in common cause against Israel. We have more difficult circumstances than most of the Arab countries, but in [...]

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The Danger of “Peace”

Islamist Morsi Takes down the Egyptian Army?

Just Another Example of the Realities of the Muslim World that the West refuses to Face

Egypt Showdown – “Arab Spring” Update

Egypt Coup?

Egypt Opportunity

Update – Assad agreeing with Erik?

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