The media is feverishly reporting Benjamin Netanyahu has lost. However, as usual, and though the leftists declared victory (again, just like last time) since the AM… it is still far from certain. And in fact, there are some encouraging signs.
Tel-Aviv, the urban heart of the secular left… looks thus far better (for the right and thus for Israel) than last 2019 election.
The previous results, with about 63% voter turnout is the following:
So far, with 56% of voters counted, blue and white is an incredible 7 points lower, and Likud a few higher. While Meretz is a bit higher (which is good, the party least likely to be able to sit with Lieberman if he really went beserk), Labor is lower. As predicted, the leftist fragmentation has hurt them, with this inclusion of the two former leftists leaders, Ehud Barak and the massive loser Amir Peretz. We also thus far are not looking like we will lose the 7 seats due to threshold issues as happened last time since the right wing parties consolidated.
This is very telling because it is too early for National estimates to tell us anything because different areas with very different demographics are reporting at different times. But Tel-Aviv is key at gauging the overall enthusiasm for these leftists. And so far, it’s not there. What is amazing of course, is the massive increase on the part of Lieberman’s party… sadly mostly achieved by attacking the orthodox. We will see what he does with this mandate.
As can easily be seen, at the National Level, the Likud is destroying Blue and White.. but with smaller towns reporting earlier, and smaller towns being populated by more sensible folks, people of values, the land and who serve i n the military, they tend to be more right wing. And so with only 10% reporting there, while it is encouraging, it does not mean much. The Tel-Aviv numbers above however, do mean something.
From a more strategic level, if the results are anything like last election a few months back, the kingmaker will be Lieberman, because there are no other independent right wing parties that would or could switch sides. I will comment some more on why that is and what he may or may not be up to.
More updates to come…
Cities like Ashdod are pretty much even so far, from last election results’ with the large exception of Lieberman gaining a huge percentage.
But the Likud vs Blue and White is quite stable.
In Haifa, a leftist stronghold and one the largest cities, we have our first less than stellar news. We have Likud quite steady, but an increase for Blue and White and slight increase for Labor. While the 3.66% of Kahlon was lost (since he dropped out) on the right, but it was more than made up for by Lieberman’s large increase, as is happening across the country. As everywhere though, Shaked’s New right is also on a modest rise. Overall, not a problem at all as long as Lieberman stays right.
Haifa so far:
And to take a look at the situation in an urban, but right leaning city such as Jerusalem. Here we have the previous results:
And thus far reporting:
This is encouraging. We see the Blue and White / Likud situation virtually unchanged. However, unlike in the more leftist cities, the large increase is not to Avigdor Lieberman’s party, but Shaked’s new right. This votes, which previously were split mostly between two parties whose votes ended up in the trash, are now joining the solid right.
In all cases, we are seeing large increases only to right wing parties, thus far either Likud inTel-Aviv, or mostly nationwide increases to Lieberman, and to a lesser extent to Shaked’s New Right. So from a camp perspective, the left, despite all reporting to the contrary seems, so far, quite a ways off from winning, since even at even numbers as opposed to the decrease we are seeing for the left, that would spell another defeat for them.
The problem we are facing is Lieberman’s statements that he would be willing to crown the left. And for that to happen, the public needs to feel that the left won the election, and hence all the reporting. But Lieberman, who once famously said that right of him there was only a wall, ought to not count for them… them being the parties who are proud members of the Socialist International and the Arabs.
Final update for a while… as it is 6 AM. A bold prediction, in contrast to almost all news reports thus far:
Well, we shall know soon enough on Wed… but my prediction is the following.
Blue and White
Labor (now w Gesher)
Meretz (now w Barak)
+ the Arab parties
will not, B”H, reach 61 mandates. That means the left lost, period.
This past election they got 57 together… the same folks, it was close but not enough. And in fact, I tend to think this time the number will be smaller rather larger, but that remains to be seen.
(How Jews vote along with parties who could and would form a ruling coalition along with our enemies.. I don’t understand, and even less understand those that buy that Blue and White is not the left, when this is its only path to power.. coalition with the communists and the enemies of the state who get a vote in our, but not their states)
So the only way we turn this victory into a victory for our enemies is if any of the right wing parties (particularly he who once famously said that right of him there was only a wall), betray their constituents and good conscious for the fleeting pride of political power and praises from the more “hip” elements of western civilization, and crowns the left.
In that case of course, they will not need the Arabs in the coalition, and gladly change them for the right wing defector.. but we must remember that such a coalition could never have been if it fact the 61 were not there with the Arabs.
And there may be those (ie Lieberman) that are imagining a third alternative, where Blue and White and Likud sit together, at the expense of not needing the Orthodox parties, nor Meretz and/or Labor for example at the more extreme end of the left. But they misjudge the fundamentals that cut across the right wing camp, and those that do so on the left.
That will not happen unless Blue and White was to accept Bibi as PM, and in such an event it is Lieberman who would become unnecessary…(along with all other parties) and get much less in the coalition agreement than by simply joining the right as usual.
Lieberman confuses the state of Israel for Am Israel (will right about that later), or I hope, bluffs that he does, and unless this confusion makes him crown the left, I predict they have lost, and the right, along with all Israel, have won…. all news reports thus far not withstanding.