The Lighthouse | 2011 December 28

Short Update on Iran’s Threat today

By Erik Zimerman On December 28, 2011 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind

Iran is threatening to cut off the Strait of Hormuz to all oil exports (basically everyone’s oil, Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq etc) must pass through there. Nice… If they do that, their fate is sealed, not even Obama may be able to save them. (It speaks volumes of their strategy that to date has worked, if they talk big enough, the world trembles. Qaddafi’s pleads of “why are you randomly bombing us, we are friends” fell on completely unafraid deaf ears) But since they are unlikely to do that, we have a likely scenario of oil soaring short term (already did so on tension and the announcements passed $100 a barrel), and then coming back down after it blows over. Time to short? In event of an actual strike on Iran, be it from them cutting off Hormuz or an unrelated strike by Israel and/or the US on their nukes, oil will soar even higher for the duration of the conflict, and then once again drop down. The oil price equation is in this case not only very interesting for would be investors, but the entire geopolitical situation. As the world economy still hangs by thin [...]

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Short Update on Iran’s Threat today

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Short Update on Iran’s Threat today

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