The Lighthouse | 2013 January 23

The Next Coalition

By Erik Zimerman On January 23, 2013 · Add Comment · In Avvisi, Joab's Men

Netanyahu risked elections in order to get a strong and stable ruling coalition that can tackle the challenges facing Israel, including Iran, Hamas, the Arab Spring, demographic forces and a dire global economic outlook. Minutes after polls closed, we reported some of the possible expectations and some unique predictions. The Lighthouse was dead-on in predicting that Yesh Atid would have more seats in the next election than the media had predicted. We also feared though were less sure about the Likud-Beiteinu coalition doing worse than predicted. Before the election, the Likud and Lieberman together controlled 42 (27 and 15 respectively) seats together. After they announced the merger, I predicted that the united front would lose seats. It definitely did with the early exit polling results indicating they now have only 31 seats between them. There are two reasons for this large drop. The first is that Lieberman outside of his independent party loses much of the appeal of his traditional Russian voter. On the other hand (though it is a smaller effect) some Likud supporters, especially Sephardi voters, may be turned off by Lieberman’s inclusion, probably to Shas’ benefit. One would assume this was obvious to both leaders who chose this path in any event. The second major factor for [...]

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The Next Coalition

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