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Currently viewing the tag: "Syria"

Obama-Kerry Iranian Appeasement in the Trash – Is War Next?

By Erik Zimerman On May 8, 2018 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Avvisi, Joab's Men

Tensions are high as President Trump canceled the Iran deal. the IDF has been increasingly hitting Iranian targets within Syria, and there is mounting fear of an Iranian response. As I have written about at length, Iran has very little in the way of a response. It is a paper tiger that has started to believe its own hype. It is a poor, backwards, corrupt country with negligible military experience and a shaky regime and paranoid regime. The Iraqi army, itself famous for incompetence, was a far superior (though smaller) force to the Iranians during their long conflict in the 80’s. Iran’s experience is in funding and controlling proxies to carry out its terrorism and fighting for it. A brief and quick analysis here, followed up later hopefully with a more in-depth analysis of the dangers and opportunities, the US and Israel face. Before Though the mainstream left leaning media, especially in Israel, touts the current Israeli government as ultra-right (even fascist, whatever that means), many right leaning Israeli voters are disappointed with Bibi’s (Benjamin Netanyahu’s) lack of action regarding our enemies. This criticism would be better leveled at the same voters who fail to listen to candidate’s stated and [...]

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The “Iran Deal” – An Easy Analysis

By Erik Zimerman On September 22, 2015 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind

Plenty of headlines have focused on the Iran deal, officially the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, and they have mostly focused on various details of the plan or been overly focused on broad generalities; most either singing the agreement praises or damning it. Here I would like to take a step back and view it for its obvious implications. September 18, “adoption day”, has come and gone with the US congress unable to usher enough votes to stop the deal, despite their being vigorous opposition to it from both parties. The reason being, that as the Obama administration is fond of doing (and by now quite adept at it), it has once again skirted constitutional “formalities”, the rule of law, and the irksome system of checks and balances with its three independent branches of government. In the USA, according to the constitution, any international treaty must be ratified by two thirds of the senate (something which this agreement could not possibly achieve). The Obama administration termed this agreement an “executive agreement” in order to not fall under a treaty’s requirements. From the international perspective, these are just as binding as any other treaty, although by US law, an [...]

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The noose tightens… Turkey, Embassy attack (“I told you so”s, Rumsfeld) and much more…

By Erik Zimerman On September 12, 2011 · 2 Comments · In Against the Wind, Joab's Men

These are a few notes combined that I have been wanting to write the last few days as events unfolded and was not able to find the time. Therefore, it is far too long, but divided into sections for those interested… Intro In spite of the 911 anniversary, (and awesomeness of seeing George W speak again), and the sharp reminder that should be of the enemy the west faces, quite the opposite seems to be happening, and the Obama era of appeasement of the USA’s enemies and betrayal of its friends is yielding direct results, the International noose is closing in around Israel who as always stands on the very front line of this War of West vs East. Some days ago, before the dramatic declarations and events in Egypt, the IDF Commander of the Home Front, Maj.-Gen. Eyal Eisenberg, warned about a possible Multi Front Middle-East-Wide War with WMDs being used. He cited the spiraling tensions with Turkey and (as apparently as a reader of my posts) and the revolutions across the Arab world. He also got into a lot of trouble for voicing this opinion. Months ago, when the media did no more than hail the “freedom protestors” across [...]

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Egypt Opportunity

By Erik Zimerman On January 31, 2011 · 2 Comments · In Joab's Men

The changing situation: Mubarak is in an increasingly bad shape. He is meeting with his generals, who I think realize they really hold the power, and as long as they don’t switch sides, the rabble can’t do anything and will peter out. Of course there are limits to this, as any man regardless of how powerful, quickly is reduced to just that, a single man, if his aura of power vanishes. Everyone in leadership is always aware of this, including the Generals. They too worry about losing control of their men. Their interest is that Mubarak not look like he ran with the tail between his legs (the generals do not like to give so much power to the rabble who can then do the same thing with the next leader), but who knows how much they want him to remain. You have the extremely powerful Intelligence chief Sulleiman, who apparently Mubarak is increasingly relying on, and is much more popular with the army than Mubarak’s son, and he may be a successor. However, I doubt the rabble would be to happy with him. The one asset Mubarak has in this protest is that the most [...]

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Update – Assad agreeing with Erik?

By Erik Zimerman On January 31, 2011 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Joab's Men

Well, events seem to be proving my analysis correct faster than expected. First, we have Assad explaining to the Wall Street Journal in a rare interview why Syria is immune from these Tunisia, Egypt style protests. Assad Rare Wall Street Journal Interview He echoed my reasons posted in the last note: Assad is more popular there then Mubarak, Islamist movement is much less pronounced and the economic situation there is not as bad. Assad has also shown to the Arab Street that he has been able to thus far, avoid war and avoid surrender to Israel and the west, becoming a bit of mini regional superpower along with Iran and the rest of the Axis of Evil. This gives street credibility. Assad said, according to the AP article reporting on the interview ( I did not have the actual text from the WSJ). But he said Syria, which has gradually shed its socialist past in favor of the free market in recent years, was insulated from the upheaval because he understood his people’s needs and has united them in common cause against Israel. We have more difficult circumstances than most of the Arab countries, but in [...]

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Egypt Too? Jordan? Syria? Bush seemed to be unfortunately right here as well.

By Erik Zimerman On January 28, 2011 · 3 Comments · In Against the Wind, Joab's Men

All right, so things in Egypt are moving painfully fast, once cracks open in a damn, it is difficult to stop a total collapse. However, if the initial snowballing effect is resisted, and there is no panic among the elites and the Army, the protesters quickly run out of steam. However, as I stated in my previous note on the subject during the Tunisian riots, though these protests are possible in Egypt as well, it is certainly another matter. The security apparatus under Mubarak is loyal, powerful and expertly built for suppression. We saw Iran survive a similar seemingly unstoppable mass uprising (supported by the political opposition) just recently after the contested election of Ahmadinejad. So it is quite possible that Egypt could ride out the storm either intact or with a diminished grip on power or with promised declarations that neither he nor his son will run again for President. It is also possible that the 82 year old Mubarak has had enough, collapses, and that this continues to spread to other totalitarian regimes. Syria is an even harder target than Egypt due to the fact Assad is more popular there then Mubarak, Islamist movement is much less pronounced and [...]

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Note by Request (on Tunisia)

By Erik Zimerman On January 16, 2011 · 1 Comment · In Against the Wind

Normally, riots in Tunisia would not warrant a note, but a friend asked me to respond about the protests, weather they were a noble people uprising for freedom or savages or what.. and since I wrote it, here it is: President Ben Ali took the helm of his country when it was in complete mass starvation. In his 23 years of power, he kept the communists, foreign enemies and the Islamists out while moderately turning the economy around. Like all leaders in the Arab World, there was plenty of corruption to go around, and plenty of repression, but in overall he improved the lot of his people, and was a moderate voice in world conflicts. He also as far as I can tell safeguarded the small Jewish population still left there and did not leave them to Isalmists who would massacre them. I hope they start, at least temporarily, fleeing the country and not leave their lives to chance. Unfortunately, perhaps due to his age, content to enjoy his money and his life in exile, he did not seem to put much of a fight, and fled too quickly. I think the quick show of weakness with his [...]

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All is Not Lost (on the 2009 Israeli election results and coalition)

By Erik Zimerman On February 10, 2009 · Add Comment · In Against the Wind, Joab's Men

If Bibi (Netanyahu) and Lieberman are able to put egos, aside, consider country first, this should work out ok. With National Union coming on board, and Bibi and Lieberman together, they should be able to make the coalition, of course it will come down as usual to the corrupt and buyable Shas who will join anyone for the right price.. It is important that the right not break ranks and join Livni because their differences are small compared to the positions of the left which is to surrender Israel to the enemy humiliate ourselves before the world. The Left will make accusations that the people’s will is Kadima, being the largest party. They should be answered that their small margin making them the largest party was made up of Arab votes, hardly “the peoples” will as they are the very enemy of the state. Unfortunately our enemies, from Syria to Hamas, do not give Jews the vote. Beyond this, the right wing vote here is clearly the largest and it was simply broken into two parties. So if a majority voted right, and some even more right, what would be against the people’s will is then to the left to [...]

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